Analysis of performance indicators of some macroeconomic variables in Yemen Econometrics analytical study for the period (2011-2019) د. محمد ضيف الله علي القطابري*
Main Article Content
Abstract
The study aims to analyze the performance indicators of some macroeconomic variables in Yemen as a standard analytical study for the period (2011 - 2019), where the study used the descriptive approach and standard analysis through the use of the E-Views program. The brutal aggression by the Saudi-Emirati-American coalition on Yemen since March 26 / 2015 and until now, where the study showed many results, the most prominent of which is that the Yemeni economy was suffering from fragility in its economic structure due to poor management and the spread of corruption and its diversity in many forms The study showed that the multiplicity of crises and regional and local wars, starting with the Gulf War, then the war of consolidation of unity, then the six wars in Saada, and the events of the Arab Spring in the year 2011 had a negative impact on the Yemeni economy, as shown by the indicators of economic variables such as the exchange rate, the trade balance deficit and the general budget deficit. The state that it was in decline because of the war and the siege.
The result of the standard analysis showed that the inflation rate had a negative impact on real GDP and was statistically and morally significant. Whenever the inflation rate increased
Article Details
References
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المحلق رقم (1)
الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي وبعض المتغيرات للفترة 2011 -2018
السنوات الناتج المحل الإجمالي الحقيقي
RGDPQ1 معدل التضخم
X1Q سعر الصرف
X2Q الميزان التجاري
X3Q نسبة عجز الموازنة
X5Q
:1 2366120.0289 .9426 53.8209 -189266397.3787- -3.2003-
:2 2381341.5754 .3403 53.7500 -213899279.6571- -3.2542-
:3 2384643.2926 .0184 53.9435 -240375129.4424- -3.4630-
:4 2382202.3125 -.0365- 53.7500 -264823279.3429- -3.7658-
:1 2474076.1717 .9385 53.8209 -291496764.4514- -5.1613-
:2 2455756.8966 1.1381 53.7500 -317306771.6657- -5.3650-
:3 2445867.0809 1.3219 53.9435 -345387766.9497- -5.3441-
:4 2411976.9118 1.4694 53.7500 -370564950.1781- -5.0579-
:1 2346702.5689 1.2935 53.8209 -433269055.1056- -2.4341-
:2 2225240.5667 1.5207 53.7500 -445914527.9392- -2.5138-
:3 2105470.8834 1.8636 53.9435 -446517411.0509- -3.2380-
:4 2293726.1765 2.2784 53.7500 -430976526.5608- -4.4868-
:1 1922956.8981 3.6525 52.4538 -334694039.8242- -9.0348-
:2 1703864.6939 3.9388 52.9296 -319739541.8626- -10.4530-
:3 1433955.2982 4.0010 54.2483 -320407918.9018- -11.4681-
:4 1130186.9985 3.8106 55.6642 -331606913.6062- -11.9476-
:1 1409855.8441 2.5504 60.6683 -439111078.4748- -11.4242-
:2 1349312.3575 2.2287 62.2266 -446341284.4011- -11.2559-
:3 1286161.1203 2.0182 63.5454 -436409808.9166- -10.9135-
:4 1224669.5911 1.8931 63.8671 -406157479.7239- -10.2988-
:1 879302.0445 1.9822 62.5825 -287113836.5484- -8.4927-
:2 1040044.6264 2.0219 62.5000 -248790760.2614- -7.8682-
:3 1149646.4029 2.1345 62.7250 -221502361.4785- -7.4701-
:4 1213952.1434 2.2850 62.5000 -202692591.1136- -7.2065-
:1 1144390.9339 2.9303 62.5825 -242321364.0517- -6.7054-
:2 1163412.1121 3.0381 62.5000 -224938636.0825- -7.0221-
:3 1177602.3037 3.0485 62.7250 -198923524.9582- -7.7715-
:4 1186818.3680 2.9347 62.5000 -163670178.0297- -8.7991-
المصدر: اعداد الباحث حيث تم تقسيم البيانات في الجدول رقم ( 1) من خلال المعادلات التالية:
st quarter = 0.05469X t-1 + 0.2347X t – 0.03906X t + 1
nd quarter = 0.00781X t – 1 + 0.26563X t – 0.02344X t + 1
rd quarter = - 0.02344X t- 1+ 0.26563X t +0.00871X t + 1
th quarter = - 0.03906X t- 1 +0.23437X t+ 0.05469X t+1
المصدر: الرفيق، محمد يحيى، اثر الاستثمار على النمو الاقتصادي في الجمهورية اليمنية، دراسة تحليلية قياسية، مجلة شئون العصر العدد (31)، ص 35
الملحق رقم ( 2)
Dependent Variable: RGDPQ
Method: ARDL
Date: 12/23/21 Time: 20:55
Sample (adjusted): 2012Q3 2018Q4
Included observations: 26 after adjustments
Maximum dependent lags: 2 (Automatic selection)
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
Dynamic regressors (2 lags, automatic): X2Q X3Q X4Q X5Q
Fixed regressors: C
Number of models evalulated: 162
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1, 0, 2, 1)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*
RGDPQ(-1) 0.351822 0.129085 2.725508 0.0150
X2Q -1142.712 286.3491 -3.990628 0.0011
X2Q(-1) 661.6537 323.0035 2.048441 0.0573
X3Q 1.91E-05 5.75E-06 3.327430 0.0043
X4Q -0.128519 0.037395 -3.436828 0.0034
X4Q(-1) 0.058895 0.039498 1.491110 0.1554
X4Q(-2) 0.029728 0.019087 1.557503 0.1389
X5Q 2185.157 361.3172 6.047753 0.0000
X5Q(-1) -1003.540 334.1544 -3.003222 0.0084
C 48971.28 13384.96 3.658680 0.0021
R-squared 0.993529 Mean dependent var 15078.91
Adjusted R-squared 0.989888 S.D. dependent var 8121.222
S.E. of regression 816.6419 Akaike info criterion 16.53200
Sum squared resid 10670463 Schwarz criterion 17.01588
Log likelihood -204.9160 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.67134
F-statistic 272.9338 Durbin-Watson stat 2.380691
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model selection.
الملحق رقم ( 3 )
ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form
Original dep. variable: RGDPQ
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1, 0, 2, 1)
Date: 12/23/21 Time: 17:41
Sample: 2012Q1 2018Q4
Included observations: 26
Cointegrating Form
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(X2Q) -1696.072469 175.826447 -9.646288 0.0000
X3Q -0.000001 0.000001 -0.877033 0.3934
D(X4Q) -0.109693 0.028940 -3.790314 0.0016
D(X4Q(-1)) -0.034277 0.017720 -1.934306 0.0710
D(X5Q) 1838.954729 279.389091 6.582056 0.0000
CointEq(-1) -0.872208 0.143672 -6.070838 0.0000
Cointeq = RGDPQ - (-742.1705*X2Q + 0.0000*X3Q -0.0616*X4Q +
9820*X5Q + 75552.1860 )
Long Run Coefficients
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
X2Q -742.170498 165.804510 -4.476178 0.0004
X3Q 0.000030 0.000006 4.965518 0.0001
X4Q -0.061550 0.025401 -2.423131 0.0276
X5Q 1822.981996 325.554654 5.599619 0.0000
C 75552.185979 9276.981730 8.144048 0.0000
الملحق ( 4 )
ARDL Bounds Test
Date: 03/18/22 Time: 18:10
Sample: 2013 2039
Included observations: 27
Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist
Test Statistic Value k
F-statistic 4.696128 4
Critical Value Bounds
Significance I0 Bound I1 Bound
% 2.2 3.09
% 2.56 3.49
5% 2.88 3.87
% 3.29 4.37
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: D(RGDPQ1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/18/22 Time: 18:10
Sample: 2013 2039
Included observations: 27
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(X3Q) -0.002614 0.000691 -3.785958 0.0012
D(X5Q) -24287.09 23497.14 -1.033619 0.3143
C 1349885. 1131896. 1.192587 0.2477
X1Q(-1) -92749.45 40526.29 -2.288624 0.0337
X2Q(-1) -7728.890 14935.63 -0.517480 0.6108
X3Q(-1) -0.000215 0.000278 -0.771706 0.4498
X5Q(-1) 23766.81 13026.24 1.824534 0.0838
RGDPQ1(-1) -0.380543 0.139282 -2.732169 0.0132
R-squared 0.667446 Mean dependent var -43677.84
Adjusted R-squared 0.544927 S.D. dependent var 156224.6
S.E. of regression 105387.7 Akaike info criterion 26.20988
Sum squared resid 2.11E+11 Schwarz criterion 26.59383
Log likelihood -345.8333 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.32404
F-statistic 5.447662 Durbin-Watson stat 2.248481
Prob(F-statistic) 0.001496
الملحق رقم ( 5 )
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.165506 Prob. F(1,18) 0.6889
Obs*R-squared 0.245998 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.6199
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: ARDL
Date: 03/18/22 Time: 18:32
Sample: 2013 2039
Included observations: 27
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RGDPQ1(-1) 0.037677 0.173005 0.217779 0.8301
X1Q 6798.417 39924.60 0.170281 0.8667
X2Q 2622.948 16576.55 0.158232 0.8760
X3Q 0.000101 0.000615 0.163409 0.8720
X3Q(-1) -5.67E-05 0.000552 -0.102566 0.9194
X5Q 1942.542 24140.25 0.080469 0.9368
X5Q(-1) -3163.778 25078.64 -0.126154 0.9010
C -226206.2 1273744. -0.177592 0.8610
RESID(-1) -0.121589 0.298873 -0.406825 0.6889
R-squared 0.009111 Mean dependent var -1.83E-11
Adjusted R-squared -0.431284 S.D. dependent var 84454.26
S.E. of regression 101037.9 Akaike info criterion 26.14558
Sum squared resid 1.84E+11 Schwarz criterion 26.57753
Log likelihood -343.9653 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.27402
F-statistic 0.020688 Durbin-Watson stat 2.031981
Prob(F-statistic) 0.999997