Analysis of performance indicators of some macroeconomic variables in Yemen Econometrics analytical study for the period (2011-2019) د. محمد ضيف الله علي القطابري*

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مجلة الأندلس للعلوم الإنسانية و الاجتماعية

Abstract

The study aims to analyze the performance indicators of some macroeconomic variables in Yemen as a standard analytical study for the period (2011 - 2019), where the study used the descriptive approach and standard analysis through the use of the E-Views program. The brutal aggression by the Saudi-Emirati-American coalition on Yemen since March 26 / 2015 and until now, where the study showed many results, the most prominent of which is that the Yemeni economy was suffering from fragility in its economic structure due to poor management and the spread of corruption and its diversity in many forms   The study showed that the multiplicity of crises and regional and local wars, starting with the Gulf War, then the war of consolidation of unity, then the six wars in Saada, and the events of the Arab Spring in the year 2011 had a negative impact on the Yemeni economy, as shown by the indicators of economic variables such as the exchange rate, the trade balance deficit and the general budget deficit. The state that it was in decline because of the war and the siege.


The result of the standard analysis showed that the inflation rate had a negative impact on real GDP and was statistically and morally significant. Whenever the inflation rate increased

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References

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المحلق رقم (1)

الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي وبعض المتغيرات للفترة 2011 -2018

السنوات الناتج المحل الإجمالي الحقيقي

RGDPQ1 معدل التضخم

X1Q سعر الصرف

X2Q الميزان التجاري

X3Q نسبة عجز الموازنة

X5Q

:1 2366120.0289 .9426 53.8209 -189266397.3787- -3.2003-

:2 2381341.5754 .3403 53.7500 -213899279.6571- -3.2542-

:3 2384643.2926 .0184 53.9435 -240375129.4424- -3.4630-

:4 2382202.3125 -.0365- 53.7500 -264823279.3429- -3.7658-

:1 2474076.1717 .9385 53.8209 -291496764.4514- -5.1613-

:2 2455756.8966 1.1381 53.7500 -317306771.6657- -5.3650-

:3 2445867.0809 1.3219 53.9435 -345387766.9497- -5.3441-

:4 2411976.9118 1.4694 53.7500 -370564950.1781- -5.0579-

:1 2346702.5689 1.2935 53.8209 -433269055.1056- -2.4341-

:2 2225240.5667 1.5207 53.7500 -445914527.9392- -2.5138-

:3 2105470.8834 1.8636 53.9435 -446517411.0509- -3.2380-

:4 2293726.1765 2.2784 53.7500 -430976526.5608- -4.4868-

:1 1922956.8981 3.6525 52.4538 -334694039.8242- -9.0348-

:2 1703864.6939 3.9388 52.9296 -319739541.8626- -10.4530-

:3 1433955.2982 4.0010 54.2483 -320407918.9018- -11.4681-

:4 1130186.9985 3.8106 55.6642 -331606913.6062- -11.9476-

:1 1409855.8441 2.5504 60.6683 -439111078.4748- -11.4242-

:2 1349312.3575 2.2287 62.2266 -446341284.4011- -11.2559-

:3 1286161.1203 2.0182 63.5454 -436409808.9166- -10.9135-

:4 1224669.5911 1.8931 63.8671 -406157479.7239- -10.2988-

:1 879302.0445 1.9822 62.5825 -287113836.5484- -8.4927-

:2 1040044.6264 2.0219 62.5000 -248790760.2614- -7.8682-

:3 1149646.4029 2.1345 62.7250 -221502361.4785- -7.4701-

:4 1213952.1434 2.2850 62.5000 -202692591.1136- -7.2065-

:1 1144390.9339 2.9303 62.5825 -242321364.0517- -6.7054-

:2 1163412.1121 3.0381 62.5000 -224938636.0825- -7.0221-

:3 1177602.3037 3.0485 62.7250 -198923524.9582- -7.7715-

:4 1186818.3680 2.9347 62.5000 -163670178.0297- -8.7991-

المصدر: اعداد الباحث حيث تم تقسيم البيانات في الجدول رقم ( 1) من خلال المعادلات التالية:

st quarter = 0.05469X t-1 + 0.2347X t – 0.03906X t + 1

nd quarter = 0.00781X t – 1 + 0.26563X t – 0.02344X t + 1

rd quarter = - 0.02344X t- 1+ 0.26563X t +0.00871X t + 1

th quarter = - 0.03906X t- 1 +0.23437X t+ 0.05469X t+1

المصدر: الرفيق، محمد يحيى، اثر الاستثمار على النمو الاقتصادي في الجمهورية اليمنية، دراسة تحليلية قياسية، مجلة شئون العصر العدد (31)، ص 35

الملحق رقم ( 2)

Dependent Variable: RGDPQ

Method: ARDL

Date: 12/23/21 Time: 20:55

Sample (adjusted): 2012Q3 2018Q4

Included observations: 26 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 2 (Automatic selection)

Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)

Dynamic regressors (2 lags, automatic): X2Q X3Q X4Q X5Q

Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 162

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1, 0, 2, 1)

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*

RGDPQ(-1) 0.351822 0.129085 2.725508 0.0150

X2Q -1142.712 286.3491 -3.990628 0.0011

X2Q(-1) 661.6537 323.0035 2.048441 0.0573

X3Q 1.91E-05 5.75E-06 3.327430 0.0043

X4Q -0.128519 0.037395 -3.436828 0.0034

X4Q(-1) 0.058895 0.039498 1.491110 0.1554

X4Q(-2) 0.029728 0.019087 1.557503 0.1389

X5Q 2185.157 361.3172 6.047753 0.0000

X5Q(-1) -1003.540 334.1544 -3.003222 0.0084

C 48971.28 13384.96 3.658680 0.0021

R-squared 0.993529 Mean dependent var 15078.91

Adjusted R-squared 0.989888 S.D. dependent var 8121.222

S.E. of regression 816.6419 Akaike info criterion 16.53200

Sum squared resid 10670463 Schwarz criterion 17.01588

Log likelihood -204.9160 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.67134

F-statistic 272.9338 Durbin-Watson stat 2.380691

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model selection.

الملحق رقم ( 3 )

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form

Original dep. variable: RGDPQ

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1, 0, 2, 1)

Date: 12/23/21 Time: 17:41

Sample: 2012Q1 2018Q4

Included observations: 26

Cointegrating Form

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(X2Q) -1696.072469 175.826447 -9.646288 0.0000

X3Q -0.000001 0.000001 -0.877033 0.3934

D(X4Q) -0.109693 0.028940 -3.790314 0.0016

D(X4Q(-1)) -0.034277 0.017720 -1.934306 0.0710

D(X5Q) 1838.954729 279.389091 6.582056 0.0000

CointEq(-1) -0.872208 0.143672 -6.070838 0.0000

Cointeq = RGDPQ - (-742.1705*X2Q + 0.0000*X3Q -0.0616*X4Q +

9820*X5Q + 75552.1860 )

Long Run Coefficients

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

X2Q -742.170498 165.804510 -4.476178 0.0004

X3Q 0.000030 0.000006 4.965518 0.0001

X4Q -0.061550 0.025401 -2.423131 0.0276

X5Q 1822.981996 325.554654 5.599619 0.0000

C 75552.185979 9276.981730 8.144048 0.0000

الملحق ( 4 )

ARDL Bounds Test

Date: 03/18/22 Time: 18:10

Sample: 2013 2039

Included observations: 27

Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist

Test Statistic Value k

F-statistic 4.696128 4

Critical Value Bounds

Significance I0 Bound I1 Bound

% 2.2 3.09

% 2.56 3.49

5% 2.88 3.87

% 3.29 4.37

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: D(RGDPQ1)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/18/22 Time: 18:10

Sample: 2013 2039

Included observations: 27

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(X3Q) -0.002614 0.000691 -3.785958 0.0012

D(X5Q) -24287.09 23497.14 -1.033619 0.3143

C 1349885. 1131896. 1.192587 0.2477

X1Q(-1) -92749.45 40526.29 -2.288624 0.0337

X2Q(-1) -7728.890 14935.63 -0.517480 0.6108

X3Q(-1) -0.000215 0.000278 -0.771706 0.4498

X5Q(-1) 23766.81 13026.24 1.824534 0.0838

RGDPQ1(-1) -0.380543 0.139282 -2.732169 0.0132

R-squared 0.667446 Mean dependent var -43677.84

Adjusted R-squared 0.544927 S.D. dependent var 156224.6

S.E. of regression 105387.7 Akaike info criterion 26.20988

Sum squared resid 2.11E+11 Schwarz criterion 26.59383

Log likelihood -345.8333 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.32404

F-statistic 5.447662 Durbin-Watson stat 2.248481

Prob(F-statistic) 0.001496

الملحق رقم ( 5 )

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 0.165506 Prob. F(1,18) 0.6889

Obs*R-squared 0.245998 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.6199

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID

Method: ARDL

Date: 03/18/22 Time: 18:32

Sample: 2013 2039

Included observations: 27

Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

RGDPQ1(-1) 0.037677 0.173005 0.217779 0.8301

X1Q 6798.417 39924.60 0.170281 0.8667

X2Q 2622.948 16576.55 0.158232 0.8760

X3Q 0.000101 0.000615 0.163409 0.8720

X3Q(-1) -5.67E-05 0.000552 -0.102566 0.9194

X5Q 1942.542 24140.25 0.080469 0.9368

X5Q(-1) -3163.778 25078.64 -0.126154 0.9010

C -226206.2 1273744. -0.177592 0.8610

RESID(-1) -0.121589 0.298873 -0.406825 0.6889

R-squared 0.009111 Mean dependent var -1.83E-11

Adjusted R-squared -0.431284 S.D. dependent var 84454.26

S.E. of regression 101037.9 Akaike info criterion 26.14558

Sum squared resid 1.84E+11 Schwarz criterion 26.57753

Log likelihood -343.9653 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.27402

F-statistic 0.020688 Durbin-Watson stat 2.031981

Prob(F-statistic) 0.999997

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